The recent Chinese steel market demand Research Report

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The main purchasing managers index (PMI) data comparison

        Recently, all kinds of main purchasing managers index (PMI) have been published, the whole industry is not optimistic.

        First, the demand outlook optimistic expectations among purchasing demand

        1.businesses lack of stocking up the library of centralized procurement

        This year due to the steel trade stock less social steel circulation is not much, the middle replenishment is centralized procurement. According to the issue of Lange steel cloud platform provider, 2016 February steel flow circulation PMI index was 50.6%, since April last year, for the first time into the expansion of the range, the February sales index was 44.2%, relatively on the month picked up 1.3 percentage points, indicating that the degree of iron and steel circulation market activity increased. In February, and willing to purchase index was 53.6%, annulus comparing rises 9.1 percentage points, to return to the line ups and downs, showing steel trade enterprises purchase demand strong.

        2 order continuous improvement of steel production actively

        According to the IOT steel logistics professional committee of the statistical data shows, 2 in iron and steel industry PMI index was 49.0%, relatively on the month rose 2.3 percent, for March rose to 2014, the highest since May. Especially reflect demand side changes in the new orders index was significantly undermined, 2 in iron and steel industry new orders index two even rose to 50.9%, increased by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, after 19 months later returned to the more than 50% of the ups and downs of the line, showing steel connected single volume increased significantly, procurement market demand continues to rise. But it is worth noting is that February production index rose to nearly 18 months since the highest, the new export orders index fell back to below 50% contraction interval, finished goods inventory index rose sharply, showing strong willingness to steel production, export is blocked, the pressure on the latter or will increase. And crude steel production in the first province also showed the same trend, according to Hebei Province metallurgy Association statistics show, 2016 2 in Hebei Iron and steel industry PMI was 45%, annulus comparing fell 2.8 percent, for nine consecutive months in the below the line ups and downs. February new orders index was 52.4%, unchanged, for the two consecutive month above the line ups and downs. In February new export orders index was 43.8%, a decline of 9.8 percentage points, a record 7 months to the lowest level. With mills operating situation continues to improve, more and more steel mills to resume production, adequate market supply. At the same time, March construction site generally started, the downstream demand will gradually peatlands.

        Second,the manufacturing industry is still sluggish downstream demand is still insufficient

        1.February official manufacturing PMI was 49% for seven consecutive months below the line ups and downs

        According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing Federation and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released, February 2016 China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.4 percentage points than last month. From the point of view of 12 sub index, compared to the previous month, export orders, the backlog of orders, inventory of finished products, the purchase price and inventory of raw materials, production activities expected index increased, the remaining six index declined. Among them, in the index rose, finished goods inventory, purchase price, inventory of raw materials and production activities as well as the expected four index rose more than 1%, the production activities expected index rose highest to 13.5 percentage points; in the index fell, production, procurement volume 2 index decreased significantly, a decline of more than 1 percentage point.

        The February PMI index continued to decline, that there is still downward pressure on the current economic growth, the economy is still in the bottom of stabilization process. Although the PMI fell back, but with the implementation of national support entity economic growth and quality and efficiency of policies and measures, business confidence has been enhanced, manufacturing production and business activities are signs of recovery.

        2.The new fiscal February manufacturing PMI was 48% for twelve consecutive months below the line ups and downs

        According to Caixin media and Markit jointly released data show that in 2016 February the new financial Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 48%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points, the lowest in 5 months. In February manufacturing industry index of output and new orders index declined, the output index dropped to 2015 years 9 months minimum; new business total for eight consecutive months of decline, the export business continuous the third month of contraction, though at a slower pace. In February property of new China manufacturing PMI, output, new orders, employment and other key sub indicators were dropping, show that China's economy is still in the repeated shocks bottom stage.

        Overall, the main reason why the current domestic manufacturing industry downturn, overcapacity in some industries. Although iron and steel, coal and to the process of production capacity has been gradually start, but reduce excess capacity in the personnel shunt placement, financial institutions to stay bad debt write off and other supporting measures are not perfect, even the steady growth policy overweight, overcapacity in has not made substantive progress, conditions in the manufacturing sector is difficult to appear greatly improved. For the domestic steel market, intermediate procurement needs quite strong, terminal purchase demand has just started, downstream in the overall demand is still insufficient, unable to effectively promote steel market reversal, short-term market procurement quite crazy, terminal of the future demand will return.