Affected by the traditional Spring Festival holiday, domestic steel export volume in February is often the trough of the year, 2015 as part of boron steel export tax rebate cancellation, a large number of steel exports to advance into the bonded area, February 2015 steel export volume reached 7.8 million tons, even higher than in March. In 2016 February, the domestic steel exports despite the rush in before the Spring Festival on the export of the phenomenon, but the steel export volume is lower than that in January.
According to research group of export of domestic steel exports survey feedback, 2016 domestic steel production enterprises and large export traders steel exports in February 1 was in obvious shrinkage, but most enterprise feedback monthly exports over the same period last year. Overall, our export forecast in February the national steel and 8 million tons, a monthly decline of around 18%.
[Domestic steel prices affect the export volume]
After the Spring Festival, the growth rate of domestic steel mills is slow, the absolute value of the amount of steel social inventory and increase are lower than expected, the spot market prices continued to rise, the steel mills are more willing to spot resources on the domestic market. Domestic steel prices since December rose significantly after the Spring Festival market prices continued to rise, part of the steel enterprises in order to risk prevention, export orders more cautious, steel export quotation once appeared one-day price range equivalent to up to 100 yuan RMB / ton phenomenon. Recently, the market broke many steel export destroy or delay in delivery of the message, part of the large export dealers due to the advance and foreign signed contract substantial loss or non delivery of the goods news is ceaseless also emerge in large numbers.
[Rod and wire exports continued to expand]
By foreign anti-dumping policy, China's exports to the EU and US steel volume decreased more significantly, in January China to seven countries in the EU exports of steel on a month on month basis decreased 37.3%, to the steel imports from the US on a month on month basis fell by 26%. Instead due to Southeast Asia demand for wire rod demand is huge, although "double reverse" policy also exists, but wire rod export continue to maintain a high growth rate, January February Chinese wire rod export to further expand the share, also total steel exports from China to Southeast Asia accounted for ratio in ascension.
[March April export supply is shrinking, the increment of fatigue]
Previously, professional who has written analysis of the current domestic steel supply and demand pattern, as of March, the domestic steel supply will be less than the incremental incremental demand, therefore, steel prices continue to rise in power. Considering the export orders for the contract signed to delivery with a lag of a month, so steel export orders when the corresponding increase or restricting the volume of exports, so March 4 month China's steel exports difficult to clear increment, compared and 2015, professionals think March April country in steel exports up may appear negative growth.
In addition, Tangshan Expo opening soon, all the news shows that as an important base for China's iron and steel production, the production will be affected by certain, so the steel production in the short term is obviously very difficult to incremental.
[Spot sales margin expansion, mills pay more attention to the development of the domestic market]
According to the study of black metal base steel profitability monitoring data show that the current domestic mills have been generally profitable. Contrast the domestic sales and futures delivery and export channels and three mills in the domestic sales can get more profits, and capital returns more smoothly, so the mills to pay more attention to develop the domestic market. At the same time, China's steel exports and encountered foreign "double reverse" pressure, so give priority to ensuring the supply of domestic market has become the first choice for many steel enterprises.
[In 2016, the export of steel is still an important channel for domestic steel consumption.]
Although, the recent steel for export importance has declined, but there is no doubt, exports still plays the important role of Chinese steel consumption, 2016 January Chinese crude steel output at about 63 million tons, a net exporter of steel reduced crude steel accounted for 14.5%. In view of the current domestic downstream industry steel consumption to more than steel exports only the real estate sector, mechanical plate steel consumption has been lower than the export volume of steel, so steel products in China must be dependent on exports to ease the supply pressure. The 2016 year,professionals believe that China's steel exports to maintain the possibility of 1 tons of steel, China's net exports of crude steel exports accounted for the proportion of production may be about 13%.