March 3rd, the latest data show that iron ore in March CCI (commodity confidence index) was 0.19. "Daily economic news" reporter noted that this is the second in January, February after the resumption of Yang (January iron ore CCI for 0.14, February was 0.02). At the same time, the data show that in March the future price of iron ore futures price index FPI 1.85 (corresponding to the future price of 375 yuan). From the data released this month, the March iron ore CCI significantly increased, indicating a further increase in market confidence.
In fact, in February the price of iron ore price rise has been strong, the monthly increase of up to 10.73%. Since mid December last year, iron ore prices hit 298 yuan / ton of 10 years after the first wave of the opening of the first wave of rebound in mid January this year to February for the second wave rebound. At the same time, the futures market prices also rose sharply, and now the futures market trend to reach agreement.
Analysis of industry experts Liu Xintian said that before and after the Spring Festival, national intensive introduction to stimulate the housing market policy is the commodity market, the market "gravitational waves" -- in the "leading" crude oil is still in the doldrums, iron ore, screw steel, coke and other department of building and real estate varieties sudden appearance of a new force.
According to statistics, in the steel mills replenishment procurement demand during the Spring Festival, 45 of the country's main port iron ore stocks plunged to m9657 million tons, but by the end of February the port inventory has recovered to the level before the Spring Festival, iron ore prices continue to rise still faces pressure supply.
Liu Xintian, pointed out that in the medium term, commodity is still downward cycle, iron ore difficult to possess; in the long run, iron ore oversupply situation will more and more worse. The March iron ore market is cautiously optimistic, or will shrink, do not rule out the possibility of a local temporary callback. Optimism is expected in April iron ore CCI will continue to receive Yang, but will be weaker than in March.
During the interview, the majority of the industry insiders believe that the iron ore will remain strong in the short term. But there are also some market participants bluntly, iron ore is is "virtual demand driven, because after years have resumed production with 3 months is the resumption of production of steel blast furnace molten iron daily production but a total of about 8 million tons, equivalent to to the amount of daily iron ore probably only 14 million tons to.
"Iron ore prices, not to explain the recovery of China's demand, but said the domestic steel demand increased by only. Now the world knows China during the '45' to the excess iron and steel industry 'to capacity, to the inventory'. Therefore, long-term trend, China's steel output is steadily decline, and iron ore demand will fall. " Analyst He Hangsheng believes that last year, the four major mines in 2015 weak performance, but still keep increasing production and issuance of operation, the increase in the supply of iron ore.
"At present, all the signs show that domestic iron ore stone market in general, the long-term pattern has from oversupply to supply is less than for the sake of change, procurement requirements in the downturn of the ore price will naturally increase, the price will be solid to the prices of basic. Therefore, iron ore prices rose, not simple judgment Chinese demand recovers, but the short-term market supply and demand pattern changes caused by the price oversold bounce. This is the only. " He Hangsheng analysis.