China Federation of logistics and purchasing Federation of iron and steel logistics professional committee recently released, in February the domestic steel industry PMI index was 49.0%, relatively on the month rose 2.3 percent, for March rose to 2014 the highest point since May. Meanwhile, the domestic steel prices in December last year to February this year, a sharp rise in the traditional off-season.
In this regard, the metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute Li Chong believes that the recent steel price rise as well as part of the enterprise the resumption of production, steady growth measures to stabilize the market results, but does not mean that steel overcapacity in the industry and business "reversal", but that does not mean "to" may delay or even stop.
Since December 2015, China's iron and steel industry PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rebounded for three consecutive months. In addition to the new export orders index fell, other index rebounded to varying degrees, the new orders, procurement, inventory of raw materials, imports of raw materials such as index has slightly more than 50% of the ups and downs of the line, seems to enter the "Indian summer".
Overall, the recent domestic steel market, enterprise production appeared signs of recovery, but the PMI index of iron and steel industry is still less than 50% of the ups and downs of the line, "Indian summer" fineness.
Statistical analysis believes that in March the steel market demand will be improved, but there will be no significant release. From the cost of support, in steel, steel billet prices, driven by iron and steel raw material prices continued to rise, rising costs will be the bottom of the price of steel.
Beijing Zhonggang Trading Co., Ltd. Sales Manager Tian Jian Li told reporters that this year's demand should is better than last year some, in recent days the majority of site has started, and the current market inventory and delivery compared with the same period last year are less, so in March the market price can be to will continue to go on.
Behind the steel market rebound is constantly afterburner supply side reform. January 20, a special meeting of the State Council, Li spoke to resolve the excess capacity, should lead from the coal and steel industries of; January 22, the State Council executive meeting again study to resolve the overcapacity in the steel and coal industries; then on the iron and steel industry to resolve the excess capacity to achieve de trapped in the development of opinions "formally introduced.
From the macroscopic aspect, to the capacity, to inventory, deleveraging, reduce costs, and make up for weaknesses in five major tasks, supply side structural reform, expand the effective supply, satisfy the effective demand policies have been introduced, also to a large extent in the steel market is expected to enhance the.
According to the insiders, from the future development of economic restructuring and development trends, China's steel production and consumption has been a peak, began to enter the downward trend, the steel industry must be reduced development, scientific development.
Li Xinchuang said, from the beginning of 2016, with 5 years of time Yajian crude steel production capacity of 100 million tons - 1.5. "In the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries to resolve excess capacity for more than 10 years or even 20 years, China to Yajian capacity far exceeds the national, the difficulty can be imagined."
"China Iron and steel industry to enter the stage of reduction development." Li Xinchuang said, from the pursuit of the scale of the past to pay more attention to improve the quality and efficiency, and reshape the efficient industrial value chain.
At the same time, the iron and steel industry's export situation is not optimistic. Customs data show that in January this year, China's steel exports 9 million 740 thousand tons, down 5.3%, a decline of 8.6%, the first time in four years both decline.
China's steel exports in 2015 for the first time exceeded 100 million tons, domestic and international steel price spread is an important factor. But since last December, the sharp rise in domestic steel prices, coupled with the overall downturn in the current global steel demand, the European market for China's steel products anti-dumping investigation and other factors led to the decline in steel exports.
Analysts believe that China's steel exports in 2016 will have a clear decline, and does not rule out the possibility of negative growth.